Team USA is a heavy favorite to win Olympic gold in Paris, but the competition around the world is stronger than ever. Canada and France are both extremely talented, with rosters filled with high-level NBA players. Germany, Serbia, Australia and Greece are also plenty capable, and Spain and South Sudan are going to be tough. With that in mind, this should be one of the most exciting sports to watch at the Olympic Games, so we’re going to dive into the action. The schedule for Wednesday, July 31st only features two games, but one of those will feature Team USA taking on South Sudan. Keep reading for some analysis.
Look out for whether I label a game with LEAN or BET. I’ll be breaking down every game, but I’m not betting each one —or counting them for my record. The record below only includes games labeled BET, which will also make their way to the Pro Picks page. I’ll go a bit longer on the games I’m betting.
Olympic Basketball Record: 1-4 (-3.30 units)
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Serbia vs. Puerto Rico – 11:15 am ET
I’m pretty torn on how this game will go when it comes to the spread. On the one hand, Puerto Rico has nobody with the size to defend Nikola Jokic around the basket. George Conditt IV is the starting center for Puerto Rico and he’s giving up 50 pounds against the three-time NBA MVP. Jokic should be able to regularly back him down to finish at the rim. He’s also the best passer on the planet. So, if he sees any help coming, he’ll whip the ball out to a shooter. And Serbia has plenty of those. So, if the Serbian role players are shooting well, it isn’t crazy to think this game will get out of hand. But at the same time, I do think Puerto Rico has good enough guard play to make this a game. Jose Alvarado and Tremont Waters can both create for themselves and others somewhat regularly at the international level.
The thing I feel best about here is that the game will be a little lower scoring than expected. Playing through the Joker should be successful for Serbia, but it also takes some time. Jokic eats a lot of the clock in backing opponents down and surveying the floor. That usually lends itself nicely to low-scoring games. So, even though Serbia gave up 110 last game and Puerto Rico allowed 90 against South Sudan, I think this game will go Under. The fact that these teams both got lit up last game means they’ll come out with some renewed focus and intensity defensively.
Bet: Under 172.5 (-108)
South Sudan vs. USA – 3:00 pm ET
When these teams met in the USA basketball showcase, South Sudan was a 43.5-point underdog and nearly won outright. Team USA was trailing by a point late in the fourth quarter and went up one on a tough bucket at the basket by LeBron James. South Sudan then missed a floater to win the game on the other end.
Of course, Team USA probably didn’t play that game with any real motivation. After all, that was an exhibition game. Team USA has responded since then and the team looked awesome in a win 110-84 win over Serbia at the start of group play. But South Sudan’s length and overall athleticism allowed the team to disrupt USA’s offensive rhythm. South Sudan also plays with a real togetherness and purpose on offense. That’s something that tends to give the Americans trouble, as they’re consistently trying to find it themselves. Having a bunch of superstars is undoubtedly a luxury, but each game comes with some rough spots. Guys will over-pass and defer to one another out of fear of being bad teammates.
When looking at this game, I don’t think we’ll see as sloppy of a performance out of Team USA. The players have noted that they have “appropriate fear” for the opponent now. Team USA also has some of the best coaches on the planet to dissect the film from that exhibition game. However, it still feels like South Sudan is getting too many points. South Sudan is nowhere near the bottom tier at the Olympic Games, and a 90-79 win over Puerto Rico in group play solidified that. And overall this team is a lot more talented than people might think. JT Thor, Carlik Jones, Wenyen Gabriel and Marial Shayok have all spent time in the NBA. And Nuni Omot and Bul Kuol are both solid players. The team even has five-star Duke commit Khaman Maluach coming off the bench. Outside of Jones, all of these guys have big bodies and real length. That allows them to contest shots and play passing lanes. They also play with a ton of heart, as they’re new to this and are looking to make some noise. Playing with a nonstop motor is big against Team USA, which has stretches in which the energy can get a little low.
Overall, I think we saw that South Sudan is capable of avoiding embarrassment the last time these teams played. And Team USA would have to absolutely embarrass them in order to cover this number. A 25-point win is a massive blowout and wouldn’t be good enough for the Americans to cover.
Bet: South Sudan +31.5 (-137 – 2 units … added a second unit at -145 when the spread started dropping)
